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How would you “stimulate” the economy? March 7, 2009

Posted by Jeff Block in Business, Economics, News, Politics and Culture.
Tags: , , , , ,
28 comments

stocks_droppingAs much as I’ve tried not to watch the news any more than I have to, it’s hard to get away from all the talk about Washington’s “stimulus package” and the subsequent unbelievable spending that’s followed in its wake.  President Bush, proving once again not really to be a fiscal conservative, participated in the first “rescue plan” last year for hundreds of billions of dollars, which was at that time the largest single charges against the federal credit card in the history of the nation.  Now, President Obama, in no way conservative, has broken the record with a second package at about $800 billion dollars.  Both will top $1T easily when you include interest payments.  Democrats and Republicans alike (shame on those calling themselves conservatives!) have taken us from $6T to $10T in national debt under President Bush, which took 8 years.  Now we’re likely to jump another $1T in the first MONTH of President Obama’s presidency, and the new budget has the deficit at $1.6T, so the debt will be climbing from this point at a rate of over $1T per year, unless something changes.  Now, there’s talk of TARP 2.0, government taking over healthcare and the banks, the auto industry asking for more money, mortgage bailouts, and STILL the Omnibus for 2009-10 is packed with pork.  I think the latest estimate is like 8,500 to 9,000 earmarks.

I don’t know about you, but my head’s starting to spin … and my stomach’s starting to churn.

Not only is this amount of debt totally irresponsible, it’s ridiculous.  It’s borrowing against the future and writing checks our children and grandchildren and great grandchildren will have to try to cover, and likely won’t be able to.  But what’s even more ridiculous to me is what we’re spending the money on, which in my view will NOT “stimulate the economy”.  I didn’t like the first stimulus/rescue/crazy spending plan (whatever you want to call it) under Bush, and I like the official Obama stimulus plan even less.  And I don’t even want to think about a third, which DC is already doing.  If it were up to me, I’d recommend less government involvement in the free markets, not more.  In my view, it’s not capitalism that’s failed here, it’s government’s interference with capitalism that’s (once again) been clearly shown to lead us down the wrong road.  My concern is that we’re finally getting to the stretch of road where Socialism replaces Capitalism, and we get to be like France and Canada … yippee!

So, as much as I’ve tried not to blog political lately, I really do want to try to understand how what we’re doing right now makes any sense at all.  I have a few ideas on what I’d do to stimulate the economy if I was king for a day, and they’re all totally opposite what we’re doing.  But rather than posting those (and fighting over them), I’m more interested in getting answers to two basic questions…

First, how will what we’re doing actually stimulate the economy? I truly don’t understand the thinking here.  First, it seems like we’re spending when we’ve already overspent.  It’s like gorging yourself on the all you can eat buffet, and then when you feel sick to your stomach, someone prescribes that the solution is to chase lunch with a 3/4 pounder from Fuddruckers (with extra fries and those awesome cookies).  How does that make any sense?  If you came to me and said that you had credit card debt equal to 2/3 of your annual income, and I told you that what you should do is increase your spending by 60%, you’d laugh in my face.  But that’s exactly what we’re doing.  National debt is $10T, 2/3 of the GDP which is roughly $15T.  2008-09 budget was $2.9T (already insane).  Obama’s proposed 2009-10 budget is $4.6T, an increase of 60%.  How does that make any sense?

And Obama’s stimulus plan doesn’t make any sense to me.  Even if I concede to his declaration that there are NO earmarks (a debatable point) and believe every word about the jobs he claims he it will create (another debatable point), still all the jobs will be government jobs and temporary at best.  If the bill funds building a new road, then the government pays a construction company to build a road.  That’s good.  But when the road is done, the construction company is no better off than before the road was built.  It seems like we’re asking for a cycle like the auto industry is in…  Come ask Uncle Sam for money, spend it, then come ask for more.  That’s the wrong idea.  Wouldn’t it be better to use government money (if we’re going to use it at all) to give private industry the tools to create more jobs, open more lines of business, create new markets, etc?  Doesn’t seem like we’re doing much of that.

All I see when I look at the current “stimulus” plans are short term fixes and more dependency.  What am I missing?

Second, what would you do if you were in charge? How would you guide / lead America right now?

I’ll give you an example to get us started.  If I were in charge, I would create a couple year window during which you could deduct 100% of capital investments.  Currently, you have to ammortize your deduction over several years.  If all of a sudden companies could buy a new piece of equipment or build a building and deduct the whole expense immediately, wouldn’t they be incented to expand NOW rather than wait to do so.  Wouldn’t that create new jobs and expand business immediately and entirely in the private sector, without creating increased dependence on the government?

Another example:  I’d increase military spending by 10%, not decrease it.  Then we’d spend more money on planes and tanks and other equipment, which American companies could build.  Why wouldn’t that stimulate the economy?

But I want to hear your ideas.  What would you do?

A Discussion on Predestination November 17, 2008

Posted by Jeff Block in Philosophy and Religion.
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4 comments

Here’s my take on predestination as a concept.  This post is a reaction to a set of questions Chris asked in response to an earlier post I made.  Please everyone keep in mind that it is only my take. I absolutely do not claim (let alone boast) any special wisdom or education or skill which makes my thoughts more valuable than any other’s. If I have knowledge, it is because God revealed it to me. And the same God who has given me what wisdom I have gives it liberally to all men without finding fault.

Also please understand that I’m not posting this to pick a fight.  If you want to discuss this topic civilly, I’d be happy to try (though it’s a very tough topic, I fully admit).  If you post something about how hateful and stupid I am or anyone else is, then I’m just going to delete your comment.  So, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Alrighty then, with that context in place, I’ll opine…

Predestination is the theological belief that God in His limitless sovereignty orders every atom, every decision, every action in the universe. It goes beyond the very common belief that God is aware of everything, even past the belief that God permits everything, and settles uncomfortably (for most) on the belief that God causes everything. If there is an earthquake, then God caused it. If a man murders his whole family, then God caused it. Etc.

The “opposing” theological position probably has an equally loaded Latin-based name, but I didn’t find it in a quick search, so we’ll just call it “free will theology” for lack of better terminology. This is the belief that man guides his own destiny through his free will. Almost all who subscribe to this theory belief that God knows and sees everything. Some, not all, even believe that God permits everything. But this camp would differ sharply with the concept that God causes most things to happen. They believe God directly acts to keep planets and quarks spinning, to regulate butterfly breeding rates, or to keep gravity pulling down, etc. But they believe He balances these actions with man’s actions. Man – God’s prize creation – makes decisions too, and the unfolding of time and the universe is a complex interaction between God’s decisions and man’s decisions. An even more extreme version views God as a clock maker, who created the universe (the “clock”) and the laws that govern the clock, and then basically went on vacation – allowing the chips to fall where they may, so to speak. The laws govern the universe in which man makes good and bad choices, and God will be back someday to clean up the mess.

So, with that background in mind, let’s talk about Chris’ statement (in my last post) that God, in his view, does not cause suffering as I described, but rather allows man to cause that suffering (essentially) all by himself. I disagree. But I can’t be forced into taking a “predestination vs free will” position either. I have long held that there is significant folly in considering these to be “opposing” views. Here’s how I see it…

Both these concepts are exactly correct. It is BOTH true that God sovereignly orders every atom, every decision, every crossed “I” or dotted “T” in the whole universe. Every nanosecond. Every action of man. God is present. He is aware of, permits, and controls all of them. It can’t be otherwise. The very atoms of the universe are held together by God’s conscious will. The reliability of the laws of physics is in fact the reliability of God’s character as He holds stars and quarks and man in His right hand. God can no more be separated from what happens in the universe than a man weaving a tapestry can be separated from the tapestry.

But God has also given free will to man, a gift that is like no other. No attribute of any other person, place or thing in God’s creation has even close to the kind of responsibility that we have. We are God’s prized creations. We were made in His image … which means that we are so much like Him that it’s kinda scary. Even the echo of God in us carries with it astounding power, astounding responsibility, astounding consequences for the misuse of that power. That’s us. When I choose, *I* have chosen. I am responsible. I will be held accountable. I make no claims that somehow God’s sovereignty absolves me from responsibility for my actions.

However, God cannot be removed from the equation either. Whatever knowledge I use to make a decision comes from God. Whatever IQ, God made it. Whatever wealth, God gave me the skills to create it. Whatever mood I’m in, God created the circumstances for it (from the weather to whether or not my furnace went out yesterday to the traffic patterns during my commute). Whatever family background, God was responsible there too. Even if I believed that I was alone in my decision making, then I’d be forced to ask myself where all the resources and variables and history and context that go into my decisions come from.

There is also no sense in which God is ever surprised by an action. There are no “plan B’s” in God’s world. None. He reacts to nothing. Everything is action. There isn’t even time where God “lives”. Therefore no change. Therefore no calculus (the mathematical study of change). In God’s economy, there is no sense in which He does something and then I do something and then He does something, in order, sequentially. There is only the sense that I am and that He is. That’s why God said is called the great “I AM”. No was. No will be. He just is. Always. Eternally. To God, the same is true of me. I am only what I have been since He made me and always will be. I am not different tomorrow. I do not grow and change. I am eternally the sum total of Jeff.

But to us, in our perspective, life is like a movie. We see one frame at a time as we walk through it. Not true for God. His view of the universe is more like a canvas on which He’s painted an amazing work of art. And not one stroke at a time, either. God spoke, and the painting burst into existence. No time elapsed. Just one moment there was nothing, and the next moment there was everything – including the sum total of history and time as we understand and experience it. But the coolest thing, around which I can barely wrap my head, is that we as the colors in the painting are spiritually alive (physical life in this context is meaningless) and are – kinda, a little, enough to matter – like God.

God spoke, and in some way I don’t fully understand, His decisions and ours mixed together to create the painting. We make choices. There is no escape from the accountability for them. The Bible is clear. But every curve and line and color and hue on the canvas are God’s. He is the artist. He made the picture. At absolute most, we could be said to have made the picture with Him. He condescended to allow us participation. But in no sense is it our picture. God too is responsible. God is accountable for the picture far more than we are.

But the difference is that God is accountable to Himself. We are accountable to Him, and will be judged against Him. He is accountable to Himself and won’t be judged, nor should He be. There is no one to judge Him. He is the universal standard for everything since everything was made by Him … by the expression of His creative character.

Here’s a (bad) analogy… It would be like watching Jeff play basketball. I stink. If you could find a higher authority against which to judge me, like say Michael Jordan, then you could legitimately criticize my skills. You’d be judging me against MJ’s standards. But if I was the only person who ever played basketball in the history of the universe, then the only standard against which there’d be to judge me would be me. You’d effectively be asking “How well has Jeff been like Jeff?”. The answer, no matter what Jeff did or how little others understood what Jeff did, would be “perfectly”. By definition. I’m always perfectly like me.

Whatever God paints is good and right, because God is the one who painted it. So, if God paints an Obama victory in the 2008 presidential election or a murdered family or an earthquake that claims the lives of thousands or Hurricane Katrina or the WWII holocaust, then…. And it’s hard for me to say this… It is ultimately good. It doesn’t feel good. It seems bad. Lots of people made bad decisions that were a part of it happening. But if we really believe Romans 8:28 that all things work together for the good of those who love God and keep His commands and Romans 1:20 (among others) that God is eternal, then I think we’re forced to admit God’s role in these things as well. Again, man was involved. Man is responsible for his actions. No free passes. Sin leads to death. But we have to “hold God responsible”. It is God’s plan unfolding … God’s painting being created. God was never out of control. He’s doing something that seems out of control, no doubt. He’s doing things we don’t understand. But He can be trusted to redeem even horrible things, even things we would never have wanted. Maybe even things He didn’t “want” per se, but were necessary to the rest of the plan in a way you and I will never understand.

I tried for a while to write a spiffy conclusion, but I don’t have one. I also know that this is hard stuff, and that it won’t sit well with most. I have a hard time with it myself. And it doesn’t help that it hurts my head even to think about it. Truth is that I’m not qualified to write about it (who is, really?), so maybe I shouldn’t be. But we all also know that I’m a blabbermouth, so I threw it out there. I hope it’s useful.

I praise God for His majesty, infinite power, and for His goodness. I know it’s hard to trust God, harder for some than others. It’s hard for me sometimes too. But as I get older, I think I’m finding myself able to trust Him more. And I really relate to the comment Mother Theresa made to a man she met once who asked her to pray for him that he would have greater understanding and wisdom in a difficult situation he was facing. She said she would not, and after a pause (and no doubt a seriously troubled look from the man), she said that instead she would pray that he would trust God more even without the understanding and wisdom that he wanted. The older I get, the more sense this makes to me. And as I’m sure I’ve demonstrated in this blog entry, I’m not sure I can adequately explain why.

Difficult Confidence November 5, 2008

Posted by Jeff Block in News, Politics and Culture, Philosophy and Religion.
Tags: , , , ,
13 comments

It’s Wednesday morning, Barack Obama is president elect, and the democrats have significantly advanced their majority positions in both houses of congress. I predicted this outcome almost a year ago, but it is certainly not the outcome I hoped or voted for.

If you know me, you know that I’m fairly seriously active on Facebook. I’m also a pretty social guy in general. I have 230 or so registered friends on FB, and I’ve noticed over the last few weeks that the vast majority of them have supported Barack Obama throughout the campaign, voted for him, and are now gleefully expressing their joy at his victory. I don’t know some of these people well enough to know if support for Obama in this election is the same as devoted liberalism in general. I am fairly certain, however, that many of them voted for the first time in a national election last night, not due to age but to an interest and commitment that hasn’t previously existed. Senator Obama has clearly inspired millions. But let’s leave aside for the moment the question of whether or not their perceived liberalism is thoughtful or what drove them to their vote, and just speak in terms of Obama supporters and McCain supporters. All that to say that of my many Facebook friends, I’d say the Obama supporters outnumbered the McCain supporters 5 to 1, at least. So, my long-standing theory that Obama would win and the Dems would pick up seats in congress was pretty solidly confirmed long before the election.

As a result this morning, my Obama-loving friends are rejoicing, and my McCain-loving and conservative-principle-loving friends (not the same two groups, necessarily) are crying in their Wheaties. I admit I’m experiencing flashes of sadness, fear, and anger, but my most prominent emotion is confidence, and I thought that it was worth talking about in this setting as a word to my Christian friends. So, if you’re one of the many liberal people I know who loves to debate, you’re welcome to comment on this blog entry, but it’s important to me that you understand up front that I’m not writing this either A) for you, or B) because I’m itching for a fight, debate, argument, heated discussion, or anything else along those lines. I’m also not writing because I think I’m wise or brilliant in any way. It’s as true as it has ever been for me this morning to say that “I will not boast in anything – no gifts, no power, no wisdom – but I will boast in Jesus Christ, His death and resurrection.” I’m expressing myself because I feel compelled to do so as a means of pointing to God.

So, where am I going with this? Simply put, I think Barack Obama is a dangerous man. Why? I’ll spend one paragraph and one only explaining this belief…

Barack Obama is very young, has very little real experience, has closely associated with myriad very shady and disturbing people, and believes in ideas that will bankrupt this country both economically and by robbing its citizens of the work ethic, self-reliance, and freedom they have long enjoyed (some of which has already been seriously eroded). His positions on abortion, healthcare, and heavily-socialist economic policy deeply concern me, and the fact that I have almost nothing to go on to help me predict what he might do in the face of very real Int’l threats from very bad people who want to kill us all is also quite disconcerting. And on top of all of this, it is my opinion that throughout his campaign and even his brief career to date in public office, he and his family have demonstrated a profound lack of patriotic allegiance to and awe of this country. They seem to display a fierce allegiance to race and to a set of (frankly) anti-America socialist ideas, but not to the core principles of the America I know and love. And it goes on and on. I haven’t even talked about how it feels like he’s used the race card in this contest in very inappropriate ways or that his support of the so-called “fairness doctrine” threatens free speech or how his “community development work” in Chicago doesn’t really feel like it’s gotten the city anywhere or about his support for and association with ACORN and other organizations which I think are patently and systemically corrupt. Any one of these things would be cause for concern, but we’re talking about all of them rolled into one man … not just a liberal, but possibly the most liberal person in the Senate and someone who I seriously doubt could get a “Top Secret” clearance coming in off the street (given his beliefs and past associations), but has now been elected to the most powerful office in the world. Lastly, the press and myriad millions of average Americans adore this guy, shield him from criticism, defend him with very little substance from which to do so (mostly it stems from strongly buying into the vague general propaganda that life currently sucks and he can fix it), and follow him around more like adoring fans than political supporters. The rock star savior persona makes me pretty nervous, and so does the fact that I believe a LOT of people of different races voted for him only because he’s black, such that almost no matter what he had said or believed, he’d have gotten their votes.

Okay, so that was a really long single paragraph, but… By the time you add all this up, in my mind, you get a person who (when supported by a strong democratic majority in Congress and empowered by the likelihood that he’ll replace as many as 3 Supreme Court Justices and dozens of federal judges) has far too much power to implement changes which will fundamentally change the fabric of our nation for generations to come. And that brings me to my real point…

That’s probably a good thing.

I believe Mr. Obama’s economic policies will bring economic disaster. I believe his foreign policies will invite attack and diminish our ability to defend ourselves and to do good in the world … yes, even beyond the depths to which these have already fallen. I believe his domestic policy will erode freedoms, crap on the constitution, and spit in the eye of the founding fathers. Jobs will disappear. Wealth will disappear. Freedoms will disappear. Rights will disappear. In general, I predict that life (when measured by these standards – economics, security, liberty, etc) will get much harder, and the democrats will continue to tell us that they can make it better with more diplomacy, bigger government, more taxes, less evil dogmatic religion, broader definitions of marriage and family, looser values, etc.

How is that a good thing? Simple, and here’s the real message in this long-winded rant… because the most important things in life (real faith, real spiritual maturity, real dependence on God, real worship, etc) typically operate in inverse proportion to these other things (prosperity, security, liberty, etc). Casual pseudo-Christians won’t understand this, and they are legion. But those of us who know God and seek daily to walk with Him understand that at the end of the day America is not our home. God’s Kingdom and economy almost always function in direct reverse of the world’s economy.

So, I believe today is a very significant day in the transition that is to come. For those who are willing to let God do this work in their hearts, real growth will become possible in a way that we haven’t seen in several generations … as dross is stripped away in a (probably brutally) painful refining process. This is the source of my confidence, and my hope for the future. Not that I will have more money, because I won’t. Not that my children will be better off (financially, and in terms of their career opportunities, home ownership potential, and upward mobility) as has been true for generations, because they won’t. Not that my kids will grow up in a safer, more secure, more free America, because they won’t. Not because we will be free from / fight against tyranny and continue to advance the cause of liberty around the world, because I see that screeching to a halt. But because God will be made strong in our weakness, and our dependence on Him will increase as our ability to depend on ourselves and on “the system” diminishes.

I boast now and will continue to boast then in Jesus Christ, His death and resurrection. In truth, He has not been my fortress the way I’d like to say He has been. I have not built my house on the Rock that is His life as I could have. And I certainly have not truly viewed Him as the pearl of great price, as He so rightfully deserves. Now, it looks like God will force my hand. He appears to be about to do with me what I have failed to do on my own all these years, and it seems I have a most unusual partner in that work… Barack Obama.

My admonition to all whose life is hidden in Christ (including to myself)… “Be strong and courageous. Do not be afraid or terrified because of [anything or anybody], for the LORD your God goes with you; he will never leave you nor forsake you.” - Deuteronomy 31:6 NIV

And so it begins.