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How would you “stimulate” the economy? March 7, 2009

Posted by Jeff Block in Business, Economics, News, Politics and Culture.
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stocks_droppingAs much as I’ve tried not to watch the news any more than I have to, it’s hard to get away from all the talk about Washington’s “stimulus package” and the subsequent unbelievable spending that’s followed in its wake.  President Bush, proving once again not really to be a fiscal conservative, participated in the first “rescue plan” last year for hundreds of billions of dollars, which was at that time the largest single charges against the federal credit card in the history of the nation.  Now, President Obama, in no way conservative, has broken the record with a second package at about $800 billion dollars.  Both will top $1T easily when you include interest payments.  Democrats and Republicans alike (shame on those calling themselves conservatives!) have taken us from $6T to $10T in national debt under President Bush, which took 8 years.  Now we’re likely to jump another $1T in the first MONTH of President Obama’s presidency, and the new budget has the deficit at $1.6T, so the debt will be climbing from this point at a rate of over $1T per year, unless something changes.  Now, there’s talk of TARP 2.0, government taking over healthcare and the banks, the auto industry asking for more money, mortgage bailouts, and STILL the Omnibus for 2009-10 is packed with pork.  I think the latest estimate is like 8,500 to 9,000 earmarks.

I don’t know about you, but my head’s starting to spin … and my stomach’s starting to churn.

Not only is this amount of debt totally irresponsible, it’s ridiculous.  It’s borrowing against the future and writing checks our children and grandchildren and great grandchildren will have to try to cover, and likely won’t be able to.  But what’s even more ridiculous to me is what we’re spending the money on, which in my view will NOT “stimulate the economy”.  I didn’t like the first stimulus/rescue/crazy spending plan (whatever you want to call it) under Bush, and I like the official Obama stimulus plan even less.  And I don’t even want to think about a third, which DC is already doing.  If it were up to me, I’d recommend less government involvement in the free markets, not more.  In my view, it’s not capitalism that’s failed here, it’s government’s interference with capitalism that’s (once again) been clearly shown to lead us down the wrong road.  My concern is that we’re finally getting to the stretch of road where Socialism replaces Capitalism, and we get to be like France and Canada … yippee!

So, as much as I’ve tried not to blog political lately, I really do want to try to understand how what we’re doing right now makes any sense at all.  I have a few ideas on what I’d do to stimulate the economy if I was king for a day, and they’re all totally opposite what we’re doing.  But rather than posting those (and fighting over them), I’m more interested in getting answers to two basic questions…

First, how will what we’re doing actually stimulate the economy? I truly don’t understand the thinking here.  First, it seems like we’re spending when we’ve already overspent.  It’s like gorging yourself on the all you can eat buffet, and then when you feel sick to your stomach, someone prescribes that the solution is to chase lunch with a 3/4 pounder from Fuddruckers (with extra fries and those awesome cookies).  How does that make any sense?  If you came to me and said that you had credit card debt equal to 2/3 of your annual income, and I told you that what you should do is increase your spending by 60%, you’d laugh in my face.  But that’s exactly what we’re doing.  National debt is $10T, 2/3 of the GDP which is roughly $15T.  2008-09 budget was $2.9T (already insane).  Obama’s proposed 2009-10 budget is $4.6T, an increase of 60%.  How does that make any sense?

And Obama’s stimulus plan doesn’t make any sense to me.  Even if I concede to his declaration that there are NO earmarks (a debatable point) and believe every word about the jobs he claims he it will create (another debatable point), still all the jobs will be government jobs and temporary at best.  If the bill funds building a new road, then the government pays a construction company to build a road.  That’s good.  But when the road is done, the construction company is no better off than before the road was built.  It seems like we’re asking for a cycle like the auto industry is in…  Come ask Uncle Sam for money, spend it, then come ask for more.  That’s the wrong idea.  Wouldn’t it be better to use government money (if we’re going to use it at all) to give private industry the tools to create more jobs, open more lines of business, create new markets, etc?  Doesn’t seem like we’re doing much of that.

All I see when I look at the current “stimulus” plans are short term fixes and more dependency.  What am I missing?

Second, what would you do if you were in charge? How would you guide / lead America right now?

I’ll give you an example to get us started.  If I were in charge, I would create a couple year window during which you could deduct 100% of capital investments.  Currently, you have to ammortize your deduction over several years.  If all of a sudden companies could buy a new piece of equipment or build a building and deduct the whole expense immediately, wouldn’t they be incented to expand NOW rather than wait to do so.  Wouldn’t that create new jobs and expand business immediately and entirely in the private sector, without creating increased dependence on the government?

Another example:  I’d increase military spending by 10%, not decrease it.  Then we’d spend more money on planes and tanks and other equipment, which American companies could build.  Why wouldn’t that stimulate the economy?

But I want to hear your ideas.  What would you do?

Ummm … Now You’re Good August 16, 2007

Posted by Jeff Block in Business.
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The NETGEAR Digital Entertainer contest I mentioned in my last entry is now up and running. Check out rules and other details here.

Enter the NETGEAR

Contest centers around giving away four EVA8000’s over the next couple months in exchange for filling out this very brief survey.

Contest Central July 17, 2007

Posted by Jeff Block in Business, Technology.
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I don’t normally get into contests, but our network is running several at the moment, that you need to check out.


First of all, Monster Community (one of our latest – the official user community for Monster Cable) is giving away a free pair of headphones every day for just posting to their boards.  Hard to pass up. 

View contest details / rules, and enter

 


Secondly, DVRplayground (a home theater, media PC, digital media community) is giving away T-shirts, an external hard drive, and gift cards to Best Buy, etc.  Here, all you have to do is post a picture of your home theater system to the forums.  Also easy as pie.

View contest details / rules, and enter

 


And lastly, this contest isn’t up and running yet, but there will soon be yet another contest (one in which you make a video for BIG prizes) running on our new MyDigitalEntertainer community … the official user community for NETGEAR’s Digital Entertainer technology.

What’s your favorite Robot video? July 17, 2007

Posted by Jeff Block in Business, Funny, Technology.
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One of the many sites I work with is RoboCommunity.  Here we talk mainly about WowWee robot toys, such as Robosapien and RS Media, Roboquad, Roboreptile, etc.  However, we have recently broadened our scope to focus more on robots in general.  Eric Brandt, one of the Capable Networks gang, has asked a question there I thought I’d relay to all’y'all…

What is your favorite robot video?  If you’re interested, post your answer here – in RoboCommunity’s general robotics forum.

For the interested, here’s my latest “fav robot vid” post…

(RoboCommunity’s General Robotics Forum)

In Whom Should Americans Trust? December 2, 2006

Posted by Jeff Block in Business, Military, News, Politics and Culture, Philosophy and Religion.
27 comments

I had an epiphany the other day…  That liberals and conservatives differ sharply in terms of whom they fundamental trust to have their best interests in mind.  My observation was that conservatives generally trust the business world more than they trust the government, and that for liberals it’s the opposite.  Libs would rather put their faith in the government than in business.  Conservatives tend to trust the military more than liberals do.  Liberals have much greater faith in human nature than conservatives do.  Trust in God is all over the map, as is trust in self – probably not breaking down along liberal-vs-conservative philosophical lines.  It seems to me that these fundamental “trust vectors” play a critical role in understanding where liberals and conservatives are coming from on a number of issues, including some of the hot spots we’ve discussed recently:  universal (socialized) health care, social security, the culture war, closing the wealth gap in America, etc.

My first question…  Do you agree with the above statements?  My second is “why are these statements true?”

For instance, why do conservatives seem to ignore the concern that if a company is focused “only on making a profit”, then they could very easily be willing to step on the little guy, the environment, the law, etc in the proces?  We see this happen all the time, and it’s getting worse.  CEO’s are taking salaries 10x what they used to be, in comparison to their workers, for example.

Why do liberals seem to ignore the historical reality that when you trust the government with too much (socialism / communism) and undermine capitalistic forces like the free market, competition, etc then you end up with totalitarianism that oppresses just about everyone?  (Well, everyone except the guy at the top taking everything for himself – through the governmental structure we were supposed to be able to trust.)  They say they don’t want that, but they openly admit that they trust the government with their money more than business, use the word “profit” like a swear word (and in order to do away with it, you have to do away with competition), etc.

Why do conservatives feel that human nature is fundamentally corrupt, and constantly want to compensate for that?  Can’t they have a little faith in people!?

Why do liberals (far more than conservatives) mistrust the military?  The Iraq conflict has been an extremely clear indicator of this – when liberals over and over again assumed the military was guilty 5 minutes after suspicion of guilt was raised.  From Abu Grab Prison to Guantanamo Bay to a dozen times when our troops were assumed to have shot innocent people in cold blood before a second of investigation had occurred.  Some have even called the terrorists “freedom fighters” while calling our troops “oppressors”.  Why is that?

So, my question to you…  Are these stereotypes real?  And if so, why?

I submit that one reason is a left-brained / right-brained thing.  Typically, right-brained people are more emotional and heart-based.  They’re creative, artistic, etc.  These people have a tendency to be more liberal, because the decide by feeling.  Typically, left-brained people are more rational and brain-based.  They’re analytical, math and engineering types, etc.  These people have a tendency to be more conservative, because they decide by analysis.  This isn’t to say that left-brain people are smarter or more sane (not that definition of “rational”) than right-brain people, it’s just different … and a difference that seems to be important.  Also, keep in mind that stereotypes are about the majority – not every single person.  There are always exceptions.

An example…  the trusting business vs. trusting government thing.  I think much of the reason liberals don’t trust business and conservatives do, is that most conservatives understand business better.  The average liberal, not very familiar with business, fears it and makes their decisions based solely on the fact that they’re seeing the little guy get screwed by the big guy … and that’s just not fair.  They’re right, that is happening, and it’s not fair, but macro economic questions such as universal health care are about way more than that reality.  However, I don’t think many liberals see it that way.  They are “choosing sides” over a knee-jerk emotional reaction, not over a thorough understanding of the economic implications of their choice.  They choose government, because it’s the opposing force to choose.  Their choice isn’t so much “pro-government”, it’s “anti-business”.

Distrust of the military is another example.  Guns are bad; they hurt people.  I’m a pacifist; I believe we should not hurt people.  We have no right to run around on other nations’ soil and shoot people.  Etc.  These are all very legitimate ways to feel, but they don’t make good governmental policy.  This kind of thinking gets people killed.  So, the military is chalk-full of hard-core-rational-analysis people who know what needs to be done to secure the nation, win the war, defeat the enemy, etc.  Those who have the same perspective on the outside are their supporters, and those who think some of the bad-guns, pacifism, stay-out-of-their-business thoughts I described above not only don’t join the all-volunteer military, but are its detractors from the outside.

Okay, enough of my bloviating.  Other opinions?  Analysis of my comments?

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“Democrats Target Wealth Gap and Hope Not to Hit Economy” November 30, 2006

Posted by Jeff Block in Business, Economics, News, Politics and Culture.
5 comments

That was the title of a frontpage story in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, November 22nd.  The gist of the article is that the gap between the wealthy and the poor in America has been widening over the last 20 years (which I concede is true), and that Democrats – having won the house and senate in the recent election – are now in a place where they can (and intend to) do something about it (which can be a good thing, if done well).  The Dems’ plans to fix the gap (many of them potential plans, not likely to become realities) include but not limited to the following (according to the article). 

I thought these topics might be interesting to discuss, even though some have already gotten some air time here…

  1. Raise the minimum wage.  I can’t really argue witht his, since it’s SO low ($5.15), and hasn’t been changed in 20 years, while inflation has increased the cost of everyday goods by about 25% in that time.  I have no real beef with this approach, though I agree with the WSJ that this will do little to actually close the gap between the salaries of CEO’s and the salaries of dock workers (for example).  An increase in the earned income tax credit would be another option to which I wouldn’t necessarily be apposed, and is on the agenda of many democratic lawmakers going into January.  However, I have to admit that I haven’t spent much time thinking about the implications of an increased EITC.
  2. Limit the amount people can earn.  This effectively boils down to instituting a “maximum wage”, similar to the minimum wage, but on the other end.  This is straight off the Marxist “redistribute the wealth” page of the San Francisco values handbook, and would be a disaster.  Not only would this work toward crippling the economy by undermining the incentive to succeed, but is an afront to freedom and capitalism.  Really really really bad idea (in my opinion), but some libs love it. 
  3. Institute a windfall profit tax.  If you make too much, then you get exorbitantly taxed for it on top of standard income tax.  See my objections in #2.
  4. Lower the cutoff for the death tax.  This would undo recent legislation that increased the cutoff (from $650k to $3.5M) for paying estate tax (also affectionately called the “death tax”).  The percentage of the tax has also dropped from 55% to 47% in recent years, and this change would potentially roll that back as well.  These were key components of the infamous “tax cuts for the rich”, which we’ve talked about and which gets a lot of air time in liberal circles.  Summary from my perspective:  I think the estate tax is morally wrong and punishes people for having accumulated in life – and at that, does so a second time (because it’s taking half of what they managed to accumulate after having paid all manor of taxes on what they earned, spent, lived in, bought, talked on, used to heat their homes, breathed, etc).  I am *not* a big fan of second generation wealth, and have seen up close the disaster that people who get a lot for little work can make of their lives.  However, this is not the solution to that.  Freedom has some challenging by-products (a statement I know most liberals would accept and agree to), and I feel this is just one of them.  It takes something really really wrong like the death tax to address it, so we just need to live with it.
  5. Strengthening labor unions.  The goal here would be to give the labor unions more power, so that they can avoid being stepped on by management.  As I’ve said before, I think it’s unfortunate that labor unions are even necessary, but they are.  If management was more generous and considerate and supportive of their workers, we wouldn’t have many of the problems we have in the marketplace.  My fear is that workers with more powerful unions would use this power to “stick it to the man”.  Like much of what passes these days for the search for “racial equality”, I fear this will translate to “revenge” instead of stopping at “equality”.  I guess I have a “can’t we all just get along” attitude here, which I know is unrealistic.  So, in the final analysis, I support strong labor unions.  They’re something management will just have to live with.  Mostly, they brought it on themselves.  For what little good it will do, I would call on both sides to be reasonable.
  6. Raise the income tax brackets.  This just ticks me off.  Where’s the end of this?  So called “wealthy” Americans are already shouldering an enormous percentage of the tax burden in America.  At what point do you begin to break the back of the machine that’s creating all the jobs and wealth and opportunity for the lower- and middle class?  People think that when the Democrats talk about “tax cuts for the rich”, they’re only talking about billionaires.  Not hardly.  If you make $100k a year (putting you in the bracket 2nd from the top), you’re paying 22% of your salary to federal income tax alone, then about 3% to state, then 6.2% to social security, then 1.5% to medicare.  Totally forgetting about property tax, the 30% tax on your cell phone, exhorbinant taxes on all your utilities, and on and on and on and on, that’s a total of almost exactly one-third of your salary down the black whole of income taxes (before we even get started on all the other taxes).  And the Dems are saying that’s not enough.  If you make $250k / year (putting you $80k into the top bracket … right in the sweet spot for the small business owner, employing 6-10 lower- to middle class workers), you’re getting close to 40% just to income tax (plus another 6.2% for social security, unemployment, and a bunch of other taxes) for every employee in your company.  This not already an unbelievable strain on the people creating the jobs.  How is raising tax brackets going to make that betterYes, it would create more tax revenue in the short run, but would be one more stone around the economy’s neck in the long run.  What will make these people happy?  Jack the top bracket up to 70% like it was before Reagan cut it in ‘81?  Btw, just for the sake of reference, the guy making $10M a year pays 44% income tax, only 4% more than the small business owner paying 40%, who’s also in the top bracket.  If you want to add another bracket to the top at say $500 and up, great.  Then I can get on board calling that a tax for the rich.  But the current definition of “the rich” gets all the way down to the guy making $94k/yr at the bottom of bracket 2 – not exactly the exobitantly wealthy.  (Interested in playing with a tax bracket calculator, here’s a good one.)
  7. Raise the dividend tax rate.  Lowered to 15% by Bush’s tax cuts (“for the rich”), this played an enormous role in rehabilitating our economy after the tech bubble crash, 9/11, and the various Enron-et-al scandals.  Now, the Dems want to role it back, because I guess they feel creating more capital for business expansion (which generates wealth and creates jobs) is a bad thing.  Actually, that’s unfair.  What they really want is more equity (admirable, if unrealistic at the level they’re thinking), but I believe that they fail to see that having this rate low so that businesses can grow and expand dramatically helps the lower- and middle class.  More jobs and more assets are good, right?  Like #6, this has short term benefits, but constitutes a serious long-term liability – in my opinion.
  8. Collect unpaid taxes.  I’m all over this one.  If someone owes taxes, they should pay them.  If they don’t, they should be penalized.  If we just had a more effective system for collecting taxes (*cough* simplify! *cough* flat tax! *cough*), then we could generate quite a bit of extra revenue just by collecting what’s already due the government.  (Btw, we had a lively debate about taxes a while back that might interest you.)
  9. Increase the ceiling for social security.  This year, you pay social security only on your first $94k of income.  It already goes up every year.  It feels like such a short-term, short-sighted solution to the social security solvency problem, but yes, I guess we could raise those limits even faster and bring in more money.  Yes, this punishes Bill Gates, but it also punishes the same small business owner we’ve been talking about in the last few paragraphs.  And while we’re on the topic, why *should* Bill Gates be punished?  The poor guy we’re “robbing the rich” for?  How many jobs has he created?  How many companies has he built?  Do we really believe that Bill Gates is exorbitantly wealthy because he lucked out, not because he had amazing ideas, was craftier than others, took huge risks, worked himself half to death, AND was lucky?  Just seems wrong to punish people like him for their success.  America is the only country on earth where a person can drop out of high school, build something amazing in their garage, and parlay that into a $100 billion empire.  Why does that somehow intrinsically give us the right to take whatever we want from him, just because he has money?  I agree he should shoulder a significant burden, but don’t you think he already does?  (Also, feel free to join the social security debate from a last week.)
  10. Universal health care.  I’m not sure I even want to get into this (okay I’m sure, and I don’t – this is already a long post).  Suffice it to say, from my perspective, if this passes, you’ll pay more for something “free” than you have for almost anything else in your life.  I can’t even imagine the tax increases that would be required to even begin to cover this – double all the income tax brackets, maybe?  Makes me sweat just thinking about it.  (Here’s a very interesting analysis of the pros and cons of universal health care.)

Here’s a free-radical kind of thought…  It really gets under my skin that many of the liberals calling for sweeping economic reform – including much of the “rob the rich to feed the poor” legislation – are extremely wealthy themselves, and are well-known to have much of their personal wealth in off-shore bank accounts, outside the reach of taxes.  The Kennedy’s, George Soros, and others.

In addition to all this, I found the following interesting.  Quoting the article…

“Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat in line to chair the House Financial Services Commitee, vows to push legislation that would force companies to provide more and clearer details of CEO pay, devise policies to recapture incentive pay if earnings are later restated, and require shareholder approval of ‘golden parachute’ payments to dismissed executives.”

To sum it up, Frank asks the question, “How do you do a better job of sharing overall economic growth with the average worker?”  I’m not necessarily apposed to any of the three things for which he’s pushing in the above paragraph, but this “fundamental question” smacks way too much of “it’s the government’s responsibility to provide” for my taste.  For the 100th time, I’m way more comfortable with having the government provide freedom and equal opportunity, so that people determine their own standing in society through their hard work, smarts, and ambition.  Legislating “fairness” will never be achieved, and in my opinion we risk destroying the country in the process.  So, let’s minimize (not eliminate) the legislation of fairness, and try to get out of the way of peoples’ entrepreneurial drive as much as possible.

Some of the dems’ proposals in this article do that, some really don’t.  But it’s that question I use to draw the lines around what I like and don’t like in their plans.

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